The hand I witnessed on Monday night between Neil Channing and Vicky Coren sums up what I think is good and great about poker. It’s not often a single hand is worth an entire blog post, but here goes – Merry Christmas!
It was early evening and the £2/£5 NL Hold Em game that Neil and Vicky were playing was just breaking up. As everyone was going their separate ways, they agreed to play just a couple of hands heads up. On the first hand, Neil posted a £5 small blind on the button and Vicky posted a £10 big blind. Neil raised it up to £30, Vicky folded and Neil started to rack up his chips.
“Let’s play one more hand,” said Vicky.
“No, no, I’ve got to get on – I’ve got people waiting for me at the bar,” Neil insisted.
“Just one hand. One more. Come on!”
One more hand.
Neil posts small blind. Vicky raises it up to £30. Neil reraises to £75. Vicky goes all in. Standard so far? Hmmmm, possibly.
Neil asks for a count. It’s £909. Vicky complains that she has more than she thought she did.
“What have you got, Vicky?” asks Neil.
He wouldn’t really waste time here with nothing, and he’s not letting go just yet. I’ve seen him do this countless times in a serious game, but this is something new for me. Even in this game, even against a mate, he starts going into his relentless badgering/soul reading/chatty mode. Against Vicky? In a £2/£5 game? Really?
For those who don’t know, Neil and Vicky have known each other for donkey’s years. They’re close friends, and this isn’t high stakes for them (both have six-figure sponsorship deals and both have had tournament wins of over half a million quid). Having said that, any poker fan knows that regardless of the stakes, if you’re up against a good friend, and you have a tough decision, it’s always going to be serious.
So here they are. It’s £834 for Neil to call into a £984 pot.
“What have you got, Vicky?”
“I’m not going to say.”
“Have you got an Ace?”
“No,” says Vicky, a bit bashful, “I’m not going to say anything to you.”
“If you’ve got an Ace, I’ll call.”
“I’m not saying anything.”
“Do you want me to fold?”
“It’s not that I want you to fold, it’s just that this is the last hand, and if you call and I lose, I’ll be pissed off.”
“If I call and I lose, I’ll be pissed off. And besides, I’ve got 75 of my soldiers out there, I don’t want to leave them. I’ll be pissed off if I fold.”
“What have you got?”
“Oh, I’ve got a hand.”
“I’m sure, I’m just thinking . . . no. No, I’m not going to say anything.”
“Have you got an Ace? I’ll call if you’ve got an Ace.”
The two hands that are most likely to be up against each other – namely a low pair such as 4-4, and an Ace and another high card such as A-Q – are virtually even money against each other. But the beauty of Hold Em is that the other possibility – being up against a higher pair – means big trouble, only about a 20% chance of winning.
Given Neil’s chat, it’s most likely that he has a small pair. It’s unlikely that Vicky has a really high pair such as A-A, K-K, Q-Q or even J-J because she wouldn’t have shoved all in for £900 – she would have reraised smaller to entice Neil into the pot. So if Neil has 4-4, there are only about six hands (5-5 up to T-T) that he’s in real trouble against. But there are also a couple of hands, namely the pairs lower than 4-4, which he is comfortably beating.
“I’ll call if you’ve got an Ace,” says Neil.
“No. I’m not gonna say,” answers Vicky.
Reluctantly, Neil folds. Want to guess what they had? Well, Neil turns over 5-5 – in my opinion about the highest pair that he’ll fold there. Vicky then turns over 6-6 – about the lowest pair that’s comfortably beating all hands that Neil would think about calling with.
To be honest, the analysis here could go on a lot longer. It’s quite possible given the action that Vicky could have 3-3 or 4-4. Neil’s reraise preflop doesn’t necessarily signal super strength, and Vicky could be shoving all her chips in to end the action against a bunch of hands (containing two overcards) which might easily improve against her on the flop if she lets them get that far.
You’ve got to love that Neil takes time to think about folding, and moreover, folds a hand that many folks these days wouldn’t fold here. This isn’t a hand where two internet kids are heads up, both of them have something, both shove their money in and say “standard situation”.
In the end, Neil makes a great fold, but he’s perhaps flattered by the fact that his pair is just about low enough that he can get away from it. How much Vicky’s tells (if any) contributed to his fold, I can’t say. As mentioned, these two go back a long way, so probably even they don’t know.
It was, as they say, a great advert for the game.
