ET TU IVEY? THEN FALL TILT!

18:23, June 5th, 2011

Well, I’ll say one thing about these times in the poker world: they’re great for writing news pieces and commentary.

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This week, Ivey sues his sponsor Full Tilt Poker for $150 million (exactly the same amount FTP owes its US-based players and is currently incapable of paying back) and boycotts the WSOP because he doesn’t feel right playing if other players cannot either.

By “other” players, he presumably means those whose bankrolls are tied up on FTP, but he may accidentally be referring to those who are threatening to rain all sorts of hell on FTP shareholders if they see them playing at the WSOP. Certainly, James Bord’s attack on John Juanda this week was cathartic for many, if only vicariously.

I’ve also seen a number of comments on Facebook and Twitter along the lines of FTP being too big to fail. There is in fact a book with the same title (which is actually about Wall Street, and has a rather telling picture of a T-Rex on its cover), History is littered with examples of companies which were considered safe bets and were anything but.

Let’s just have a quick recap of where Full Tilt’s at right now. First, they owe the DOJ $1bn damages (before legal costs) for breaking the law. No, I know that playing poker online in the US isn’t breaking the law, but bank fraud is. They’ll pay or go to prison – those are the options

FTP poker scout traffic.jpgSecond, they’ve lost over 40% of their liquidity since Black Friday. As Simon Holliday of H2 Gambling Capital puts it: “Liquidity is Power”. Sure, FTP is still in second place on the hit parade right now, but as the traffic ebbs away, that flow can increase to a haemorrhage pretty quickly.

And then we come to Mr Ivey. Only a month ago I described him as someone who had had millions of marketing dollars invested in him to become Full Tilt’s poster boy. Now he wants out, and what’s more, given the nature of his statement and the reaction from Full Tilt, this is irreversible.

The proverbial is hitting the proverbial, there’s no doubt. Personally, I’m glad. I discovered a bot on Full Tilt about two years ago and they couldn’t have given less of a damn. The conversation between us basically went:

Alex:    I’ve discovered a bot on your site. Here is irrefutable proof of that.

FTP:     Thanks! It’s people like you who yadda, yadda, yadda, bullshit.

[two weeks pass]

Alex:    You know that bot I discovered? Well, it’s still playing on your site. What’s up with that?

FTP:     Yeah, well, you see, it takes time to investigate these things, bollocks, bollocks, bullshit.

[two more weeks pass]

Alex:    How much time do you need? The evidence is so overwhelming, I would have just blocked the account and done the investigation subsequently. This is so obviously a bot it’s not even funny.

FTP:  Unfortunately we simply cannot release any specifics in the matter, including an approximate timeframe. We do appreciate the wealth of information provided. Rest assured that our talented security team thoroughly investigates and scrutinizes all claims of this nature. (Edit: I didn’t bother paraphrasing this one – does it remind you of any messages you’ve read lately from Full Tilt?)

[a day or so passes]

Alex:    OK, but I’m a poker journalist and I’d like to write an article on this – can you at least let me have a statement regarding this so I can put it in my article?

[a period of time passes]

[The bot accounts disappear from the site, including one which I hadn’t even noticed, but had exactly the same stats.]

Want to guess how much that “period of time” was? Go on – just for shits and giggles, put a number of days in your head and we’ll see if you’re right. Ready for the answer?

OK – it was three hours.

Perhaps now after Black Friday and the whole payment fiasco from Full Tilt, it’s beginning to come into sharper focus for some people out there why we need a police force in online poker. Joe Sebok said it about Absolute/Ultimate, and I’ve been saying it for years: these guys won’t police themselves.

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Sure, they’re big. Sure, they have a lot of liquidity and a lot of money, but if Enron, World.com and the Icelandic banks can screw with your money even while under the auspices of regulators, imagine what it’s like without a police force.

Just because FTP has a lot of money and a whole bunch of celebrities endorsing its product (OK, one fewer this week), that doesn’t mean it can’t fail, and that doesn’t mean it can’t take your money with it.

One Comment
  1. Dan Glimne says:

    Great article! And a very scary perspective for those players who have invested money with poker sites now hit by the full fury of the FBI and the DoJ… /Dan Glimne

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